The next speaker in this AoIR 2024 conference session is the excellent Laura Iannelli, whose focus is on the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. Italy was amongst the first countries in the world to implement a mass lockdown, and this became an arena for polarised conflict amongst political elites. The question here is whether this also fostered societal and individual polarisation, and what role mis- and disinformation played in this process.
Elite polarisation can lead mass polarisation, although crises can also produce a ‘rally around the flag’ phenomenon that reduces polarisation. This offers two contrasting scenarios, of more and less mass polarisation as a result of pandemic management measures. Old and new media that spread potential ‘fake news’ content may also affect this, of course, but during times of national crisis there may also be a ‘ceasefire’ effect as news outlets act on their societal obligations (but fringe outlets continue to push their alternative views). The lack of scientific knowledge in the early stages might also lead to the emergence of diverging regimes of truth, of course.
This project explored these questions through a series of surveys, testing for citizens’ views on the balance between individual freedom and social responsibility in the pandemic, as well as on other topics of debate (immigration, European integration); from this it classified respondents on a scale from communitarians to libertarians. This was also correlated with classic variables like news media use and trust in the national government.
Respondents’ positions converged asymmetrically on the extreme communitarian position on pandemic measures, while there was considerable polarisation on other issues like immigration and EU integration. A high skepticism towards legacy media increased the likelihood of libertarian positions, while substantial social media skepticism increased the likelihood of communitarian positions. Belief in official truths also led to greater communitarian attitudes.
Significant conflict between elites around COVID-19 measures did not lead to mass polarisation in Italy, then, unlike other countries like the United States. However, the pandemic also normalised the idea of a state of emergency, which future governments may exploit in other contexts.